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FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FORECASTS

In addition to their regular economic forecasts, our country panellists are occasionally asked to provide projections for net foreign direct investment inflows (FDI) for the current and next year. We undertake special surveys of FDI inflows across our publications Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts and the resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard copy and PDF versions of the publications.



Asia Pacific
Consensus Forecasts
Latin American
Consensus Forecasts
Eastern Europe
Consensus Forecasts
Australia Argentina Czech Republic
China Brazil Hungary
Hong Kong Chile Poland
India Mexico Russia
Indonesia Venezuela Turkey
Malaysia Colombia Bulgaria
New Zealand Peru Croatia
Philippines   Estonia
Singapore   Latvia
South Korea   Lithuania
Taiwan   Romania
Thailand   Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Ukraine


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The Consensus Forecasts™, representing averages of our individual country panellists' projections, were used to calculate estimates of FDI in relation to country size, i.e. as a share of nominal GDP, and population. The table below shows a small portion of the data from one of our surveys of forecasts Foreign Direct Investment (in this case, from our November 2016 Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts survey).


FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
Net FDI, US$bn 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  CHINA 105.7 116.0 111.7 117.6 119.6 126.3 128.6 131.6
 % of GDP 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
 US$ per capita 79 86 82 86 87 92 93 95
SINGAPORE 55.1 48.4 57.2 66.1 68.5 65.3 61.3 62.7
 % of GDP 23.3 17.6 19.8 22.0 22.4 22.3 20.8 21.1
 US$ per capita 10851 9317 10786 12213 12434 11660 10727 10765

 

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), i.e. investment in one country by the residents of another, includes equity transactions, reinvested earnings and various intercompany capital transactions. FDI is generally considered to be more motivated by longer term considerations than portfolio investment in tradeable securities. The data is recorded in the financial account of the balance of payments, but cross-country comparisons can often be complicated by the different statistical methods used for compilation and the exchange rate chosen for converting local currency into US dollars. Last year saw China, Hong Kong and Singapore attract the bulk of FDI inflows with India coming in fourth place with US$44.9bn. However, some countries did not fare as well and witnessed a notable drop in foreign investment, namely, Australia, Indonesia, New Zealand and South Korea. Given the fragility of the global economy and the persistent softness in world demand, FDI inflows into the region could face further downward pressure this year. Indeed, this is reflected in a downgrade in the consensus forecast for FDI inflows for a number of countries across the Asia Pacific region.

A portion of the text from Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, November 7, 2016.