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FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FORECASTS

In addition to their regular economic forecasts, our country panellists are occasionally asked to provide projections for net foreign direct investment inflows (FDI) for the current and next year. We undertake special surveys of FDI inflows across our publications Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts and the resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard copy and PDF versions of the publications.



Asia Pacific
Consensus Forecasts
Latin American
Consensus Forecasts
Eastern Europe
Consensus Forecasts
Australia Argentina Czech Republic
China Brazil Hungary
Hong Kong Chile Poland
India Mexico Russia
Indonesia Venezuela Turkey
Malaysia Colombia Bulgaria
New Zealand Peru Croatia
Philippines   Estonia
Singapore   Latvia
South Korea   Lithuania
Taiwan   Romania
Thailand   Slovakia
    Slovenia
    Ukraine


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The Consensus Forecasts™, representing averages of our individual country panellists' projections, were used to calculate estimates of FDI in relation to country size, i.e. as a share of nominal GDP, and population. The table below shows a small portion of the data from one of our surveys of forecasts Foreign Direct Investment (in this case, from our November 2015 Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts survey).


FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
Net FDI, US$bn 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
  CHINA 90.0 105.7 116.0 111.7 117.6 119.6 124.8 128.8
 % of GDP 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
 US$ per capita 67 78 85 81 85 86 89 91
SINGAPORE 23.8 55.1 48.0 56.7 64.8 67.5 63.6 62.1
 % of GDP 12.4 23.3 17.4 19.5 21.4 21.9 22.1 22.0
 US$ per capita 4803 10842 9249 10691 11979 12233 11284 10775

 

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), i.e. investment in one country by the residents of another, includes equity transactions, reinvested earnings and various intercompany capital transactions. FDI is generally considered to be more motivated by longer term considerations than portfolio investment in tradeable securities. The data is recorded in the financial account of the balance of payments, but cross-country comparisons can often be complicated by the different statistical methods used for compilation and the exchange rate chosen for converting local currency into US dollars. In addition, there can be differences in the minimum equity stake necessary for an investment to qualify as direct investment, rather than portfolio investment. Despite a drop in overall global FDI inflows in 2014, some countries in Asia enjoyed a pick-up in foreign investment. China remained the largest recipient in the region, but good performances in countries like India and the Philippines saw FDI inflows increase to US$34.4bn and US$6.2bn respectively. As both of these economies gather momentum, the outlook is for this improving trend to continue through this year and next.

A portion of the text from Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, November 9, 2015.