In addition to their regular economic forecasts, our country panellists are occasionally asked to provide projections for net foreign direct investment inflows (FDI) for the current and next year. We undertake special surveys of FDI inflows across our publications Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts and the resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard copy and PDF versions of the publications.
The Consensus Forecasts, representing averages of our individual country panellists' projections, were used to calculate estimates of FDI in relation to country size, i.e. as a share of nominal GDP, and population. The table below shows a small portion of the data from one of our surveys of forecasts Foreign Direct Investment (in this case, from our November 2015 Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts survey).
|FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT|
|Net FDI, US$bn||2009||2010||2011||2012||2013||2014||2015||2016|
|% of GDP||1.8||1.8||1.5||1.3||1.2||1.2||1.1||1.1|
|US$ per capita||67||78||85||81||85||86||89||91|
|% of GDP||12.4||23.3||17.4||19.5||21.4||21.9||22.1||22.0|
|US$ per capita||4803||10842||9249||10691||11979||12233||11284||10775|
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), i.e. investment in one country by the residents of another, includes equity transactions, reinvested earnings and various intercompany capital transactions. FDI is generally considered to be more motivated by longer term considerations than portfolio investment in tradeable securities. The data is recorded in the financial account of the balance of payments, but cross-country comparisons can often be complicated by the different statistical methods used for compilation and the exchange rate chosen for converting local currency into US dollars. In addition, there can be differences in the minimum equity stake necessary for an investment to qualify as direct investment, rather than portfolio investment. Despite a drop in overall global FDI inflows in 2014, some countries in Asia enjoyed a pick-up in foreign investment. China remained the largest recipient in the region, but good performances in countries like India and the Philippines saw FDI inflows increase to US$34.4bn and US$6.2bn respectively. As both of these economies gather momentum, the outlook is for this improving trend to continue through this year and next.
A portion of the text from Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, November 9, 2015.