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LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide longer-term forecasts up to 10 years out from the survey date. We undertake these special surveys across our publications Consensus Forecasts - G7 and Western Europe, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts. The resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publications twice a year, in April and October.

More recently, we have broadened our coverage of Long-Term Consensus Forecasts by making them available in Excel format. The files contain historical survey data going back to 1989 for some countries, and include forecasts on GDP growth, Consumption, Investment, Consumer Prices and Interest Rates, among others. These databases are split into four regional modules (see table below), covering a total of 58 countries.

These files are updated with surveyed data four times a year (in January, April, July and October). For more information on our Long-Term forecasts databases in Excel, please contact us at editors@consensuseconomics.com. The full country list is as follows:


Consensus Forecasts - G7 and Western Europe Asia Pacific
Consensus Forecasts
Latin American
Consensus Forecasts
Eastern Europe
Consensus Forecasts
United States Austria Australia Argentina Czech Republic
Japan Belgium China Brazil Hungary
Germany Denmark Hong Kong Chile Poland
France Finland India Mexico Russia
United Kingdom Greece Indonesia Venezuela Turkey
Italy Ireland Japan Colombia Bulgaria
Canada Portugal Malaysia Peru Croatia
Euro zone Egypt New Zealand   Estonia
Netherlands Israel Philippines   Latvia
Norway Nigeria Singapore   Lithuania
Spain Saudi Arabia South Korea   Romania
Sweden South Africa Taiwan   Slovakia
Switzerland   Thailand   Slovenia
        Ukraine


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The table below shows a portion of the data shown in the October 2017 Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts publication from our Long-Term forecasts survey for Russia. The text below is taken from the same source.



RUSSIA
* % change over previous year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023-20271
Gross Domestic Product* 1.8 0.7 -2.8 -0.2 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Household Consumption* 5.2 2.0 -9.8 -4.5 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.0
Gross Fixed Investment* 1.3 -1.8 -9.9 -1.8 3.6 3.3 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.5
Industrial Production* 0.4 1.7 -3.4 1.1 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
Consumer Prices2 6.5 11.4 12.9 5.4 3.6 4.1 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.2
Current Account (Euro bn) 33.4 57.5 68.8 25.5 36.5 35.4 39.1 42.4 51.0 62.2 66.5

1 Signifies average for period. 2 Dec-on-Dec % change.

While a cyclical recovery continues to gain momentum across Central and Eastern Europe, a high level of caution surrounds the medium- to long-term outlook (see page 2 for analysis of the evolution of the 6-10 year forecast). Capital investment, labour inputs and technological developments remain the classical influences of future growth potential. However, the spike in political instability and tensions over the past 12-24 months, notably in Turkey and Russia, has raised uncertainty with regard to future economic policies, governance and structural reform, which do not bode well for the private sector. In addition, observers warn of excess debt, which will be made prominent as high liquidity is withdrawn, migrant relocation issues, and a continuing populist political tide across Europe, as key risks to future EU integration. Brexit may trigger a significant reduction in the EU budget that could also cause further tension.

A portion of text from Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts. October 16, 2017.