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OIL PRICE FORECASTS

Oil price forecasts are included each month in our publications Consensus Forecasts (page 27), Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (page 30), Latin American Consensus Forecasts (page 29) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (page 25).

The table and text (below) is an example of the monthly survey results for Brent Oil Price Forecasts taken from our January 2017 publications. Each month we ask our panellists for their forecasts for the Brent price in 3 and 12 months from the survey date and display the average (mean), along with the high and low forecasts, standard deviation and number of forecasters.


Brent, US$ per barrel
Range 1990-2017
Spot Rate (January 9)
US$9.10-143.95
54.39
January Survey
Forecast for
End April
2017
End January
2018
Mean Forecast 54.5 56.1
High 64.3 66.3
Low 45.0 45.0
Standard Deviation 3.6 5.2
No. of Forecasts 65 63


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Recent Strength Now in Question?


Oil slipped on our January 9 survey date amid signs of rising US output, specifically higher US oil rig counts over 10 consecutive weeks. This is in contrast to noticeable optimism regarding the oil market in recent weeks. Prices started recovering in November during OPEC negotiations for a supply cut. Brent hit a recent high of US$55.05 per barrel on January 3 as it appears that many oil producers, including Russia, are sticking with the deal to bolster oil prices. However, the Brent spot eased to US$54.39 on January 9 as the apparent uptick in US production is raising fears that the OPEC agreement will be undercut. OPEC is also facing record-high oil exports in December in Iraq, though the Iraqi Oil Ministry has promised to comply with the supply cut starting this month.

Taken from Consensus Forecasts, January 9, 2017.