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OIL PRICE FORECASTS

Oil price forecasts are included each month in our publications Consensus Forecasts (page 27), Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts (page 30), Latin American Consensus Forecasts (page 29) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (page 25).

The table and text (below) is an example of the monthly survey results for Brent Oil Price Forecasts taken from our January 2016 publications. Each month we ask our panellists for their forecasts for the Brent price in 3 and 12 months from the survey date and display the average (mean), along with the high and low forecasts, standard deviation and number of forecasters.


Brent, US$ per barrel
Range 1990-2016
Spot Rate (January 11)
9.10-143.95
30.14
January Survey
Forecast for
End April
2016
End January
2017
Mean Forecast 42.8 49.6
High 62.5 71.6
Low 28.0 30.0
Standard Deviation 6.9 7.6
No. of Forecasts 61 60


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Sharp Deflation in the Oil Market


Brent and West Texas Intermediate have converged more closely than usual on the back of ongoing deflationary pressures. Brent hovered just below US$40 per barrel in early December, but both the European measure and its US counterpart have since dropped sharply to US$30.14 on January 11. Investors appear to have given up hope of a meaningful price rally in the midst of oversupply (as US and Saudi producers continue pumping crude) and slowing Chinese growth fundamentals. Chinese demand makes up a large portion of world demand for natural resources, and the emerging markets (many of which are commodity exporters) are feeling the pinch. Prices could slip even further if the renminbi is devalued again by the Chinese authorities and the US currency sees a corresponding surge.

Taken from Consensus Forecasts, January 11, 2016.