In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide short-term economic forecasts for the next 8 quarters. We undertake special surveys of quarterly forecasts across our publications Consensus Forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts at regular intervals throughout the year and the resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publications.
Quarter-by-quarter forecasts are updated every March, June, September and December (in Consensus Forecasts and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts), May and November (in Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts) and June and December (in Latin American Consensus Forecasts). Below is a list of countries for which we collect quarterly forecasts. Furthermore, quarter-by-quarter forecasts for the US economy are updated monthly in our publication Consensus Forecasts - USA.
|Consensus Forecasts||Asia Pacific
|United States||Australia||Argentina||Czech Republic|
|Euro zone||New Zealand||Estonia|
The table below shows a sample of the data from one of our surveys for Quarter-by-Quarter forecasts in Germany (from our March 2016 Consensus Forecasts survey).
|*% Change over
|% Change Qtr/Qtr||0.4||0.4||0.3||0.3||0.4||0.4||0.5||0.4||0.5||0.4||0.4||0.4|
|% Change Qtr/Qtr||0.4||0.1||0.6||0.3||0.6||0.5||0.5||0.4||0.4||0.4||0.4||0.3|
|3-month Euro Rate, %1||0.0||0.0||0.0||-0.1||-0.2||-0.2||-0.2||-0.2||-0.2||-0.2||-0.1||-0.1|
1 %, End-period.
Activity in much of the G-7 and Western Europe moderated
at the end of last year, and this has once again triggered concern over
growth going into 2016. External demand has been on a downward trend, with
China slowing noticeably amid stagnating industrial output
and financial volatility. The emerging markets have been hit by the resulting
retrenchment in oil and commodity prices. In recent weeks, the spotlight
has returned to Europe and North America amid fears of faltering growth.
Weak manufacturing in particular has reined in regional activity. In the
United States, despite Q4 GDP advancing slightly more than
initially reported, growth still slowed compared with Q2 and Q3 2015. Moreover,
inventories contributed much to the outturn, and this impetus in stockbuilding
is not expected to be sustained going forward, especially with foreign demand
currently muted. US dollar strength has certainly not helped
export-oriented industries. According to quarterly forecasts, y-o-y industrial
production is expected to have contracted in Q1 as a result, and the return
to growth is expected to be downbeat over the following three quarters.
The contractionary quarterly outlook for industry this year is mirrored
in Japan, Germany, the UK
and Canada. Japanese GDP has been especially
affected by the relative strength of the yen and proximity to Chinese markets,
as the chart on page 2 (left) illustrates. In Germany and
the Euro area, private consumption is holding up in the
face of adverse external headwinds, helped by cheaper fuel costs and some
labour market improvement. However, inflation is struggling to get off the
ground. The ECB acted aggressively at its March 10 meeting, cutting its
policy rate to 0% and expanding its QE programme significantly.
Text from Consensus Forecasts, March 7, 2016.