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QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECASTS

In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide short-term economic forecasts for the next 8 quarters. We undertake special surveys of quarterly forecasts across our publications Consensus Forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts at regular intervals throughout the year and the resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publications.

Quarter-by-quarter forecasts are updated every March, June, September and December (in Consensus Forecasts and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts), May and November (in Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts) and June and December (in Latin American Consensus Forecasts). Below is a list of countries for which we collect quarterly forecasts. Furthermore, quarter-by-quarter forecasts for the US economy are updated monthly in our publication Consensus Forecasts - USA.


Consensus Forecasts Asia Pacific
Consensus Forecasts
Latin American
Consensus Forecasts
Eastern Europe
Consensus Forecasts
United States Australia Argentina Czech Republic
Japan China Brazil Hungary
Germany Hong Kong Chile Poland
France India Mexico Russia
United Kingdom Indonesia Venezuela Turkey
Italy Japan Colombia Bulgaria
Canada Malaysia Peru Croatia
Euro zone New Zealand   Estonia
Netherlands Philippines   Latvia
Norway Singapore   Lithuania
Spain South Korea   Romania
Sweden Taiwan   Slovakia
Switzerland Thailand   Slovenia
      Ukraine


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The table below shows a sample of the data from one of our surveys for Quarter-by-Quarter forecasts in Germany (from our March 2016 Consensus Forecasts survey).



GERMANY
*% Change over
previous year
2015 2016 2017
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP* 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7
% Change Qtr/Qtr 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Private Consumption* 1.9 2.1 2.1 1.4 1.6 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5
% Change Qtr/Qtr 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Industrial Production* 0.2 1.3 1.1 -0.6 -0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
Consumer Prices* 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7
3-month Euro Rate, %1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1

1 %, End-period.

Activity in much of the G-7 and Western Europe moderated at the end of last year, and this has once again triggered concern over growth going into 2016. External demand has been on a downward trend, with China slowing noticeably amid stagnating industrial output and financial volatility. The emerging markets have been hit by the resulting retrenchment in oil and commodity prices. In recent weeks, the spotlight has returned to Europe and North America amid fears of faltering growth. Weak manufacturing in particular has reined in regional activity. In the United States, despite Q4 GDP advancing slightly more than initially reported, growth still slowed compared with Q2 and Q3 2015. Moreover, inventories contributed much to the outturn, and this impetus in stockbuilding is not expected to be sustained going forward, especially with foreign demand currently muted. US dollar strength has certainly not helped export-oriented industries. According to quarterly forecasts, y-o-y industrial production is expected to have contracted in Q1 as a result, and the return to growth is expected to be downbeat over the following three quarters. The contractionary quarterly outlook for industry this year is mirrored in Japan, Germany, the UK and Canada. Japanese GDP has been especially affected by the relative strength of the yen and proximity to Chinese markets, as the chart on page 2 (left) illustrates. In Germany and the Euro area, private consumption is holding up in the face of adverse external headwinds, helped by cheaper fuel costs and some labour market improvement. However, inflation is struggling to get off the ground. The ECB acted aggressively at its March 10 meeting, cutting its policy rate to 0% and expanding its QE programme significantly.

Text from Consensus Forecasts, March 7, 2016.