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QUARTERLY ECONOMIC FORECASTS

In addition to their annual forecasts, we regularly ask our country panellists to provide short-term economic forecasts for the next 8 quarters. We undertake special surveys of quarterly forecasts across our publications Consensus Forecasts, Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts, Latin American Consensus Forecasts and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts at regular intervals throughout the year and the resulting tables and analysis are displayed in both the hard-copy and PDF versions of the publications.

Quarter-by-quarter forecasts are updated every March, June, September and December (in Consensus Forecasts and Asia Pacific Consensus Forecasts), May and November (in Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts) and June and December (in Latin American Consensus Forecasts). Below is a list of countries for which we collect quarterly forecasts. Furthermore, quarter-by-quarter forecasts for the US economy are updated monthly in our publication Consensus Forecasts - USA.


Consensus Forecasts Asia Pacific
Consensus Forecasts
Latin American
Consensus Forecasts
Eastern Europe
Consensus Forecasts
United States Australia Argentina Czech Republic
Japan China Brazil Hungary
Germany Hong Kong Chile Poland
France India Mexico Russia
United Kingdom Indonesia Venezuela Turkey
Italy Japan Colombia Bulgaria
Canada Malaysia Peru Croatia
Euro zone New Zealand   Estonia
Netherlands Philippines   Latvia
Norway Singapore   Lithuania
Spain South Korea   Romania
Sweden Taiwan   Slovakia
Switzerland Thailand   Slovenia
      Ukraine


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The table below shows a sample of the data from one of our surveys for Quarter-by-Quarter forecasts in Germany (from our March 2017 Consensus Forecasts survey).



GERMANY
*% Change over
previous year
2016 2017 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
GDP* 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6
% Change Qtr/Qtr 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Private Consumption* 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3
% Change Qtr/Qtr 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3
Industrial Production* 1.5 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.8 2.1 2.3 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6
Consumer Prices* 0.3 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8
3-month Euro Rate, %1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1

1 %, End-period.

United States’ GDP growth ended 2016 on a solid note in y-o-y terms (at +1.9%) but in q-o-q terms, activity slowed from 0.9% in Q3 to 0.5%. Still, the economic outlook over the next eight quarters looks increasingly upbeat. Despite tumultuous political events and an administration that is more protectionist in tone than its predecessors, the prospect of possible tax cuts and deregulation have lifted sentiment over the quarterly horizon. Personal consumption is forecast to remain relatively robust amid hoped-for tax cuts and employment indicators. Consumer price inflation is also expected to increase over the next three quarters, while forecasts for the 3-month Treasury bill indicate a gradual, upward trajectory in the Fed’s tightening cycle. This is in contrast with most of the G-7. Despite stronger GDP forecasts for the United Kingdom over the next quarter or two, the Bank of England is expected to keep rates low and unchanged. This is in anticipation of highly uncertain Brexit negotiations over the next two years which are probably the single most important factor weighing on UK expectations. Growth is expected to moderate over the course of 2017 amid the uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Euro area – and particular Germany – has shown notable economic resilience recently, with the recovery picking up pace and inflation slowly rising after two years of deflationary pressures. The unemployment average for the Euro bloc is coming down. The ECB has even indicated that it is looking to pare back quantitative easing, which will be welcome news in Germany and Spain where inflation has been stronger. It may be less welcomed in France or Italy where growth and prices are expected to remain soft.

Text from Consensus Forecasts, March 13, 2017.