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SECTORAL GROWTH FORECASTS

In addition to their regular forecasts, once a year we survey our panellists in Latin American Consensus Forecasts (in August) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (in July) for their projections for growth in a range of economic sectors, based on conventional GDP output breakdowns used in the individual countries.


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The table below shows a sample of the data for Argentina from one of our surveys of forecasts for Sectoral Growth (in this case, from our August 2015 Latin American Consensus Forecasts survey), together with textual analysis from the same publication.


ARGENTINA
% change on previous year
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Agriculture and Forestry
-0.1
-6.0
8.2
4.2
5.8
1.7
Fishing
4.2
0.2
22.2
0.9
-0.4
3.5
Mining
-2.5
-1.2
1.5
1.9
0.7
0.5
Manufacturing
11.5
-1.7
0.4
-1.3
-0.9
0.8
Electricity, Gas, Water
5.0
6.3
2.0
0.6
2.4
1.2
Construction
9.0
-2.8
3.6
-0.5
3.8
0.6
Services
9.6
3.3
4.0
0.9
0.3
0.4
Total GDP
8.4
0.8
2.9
0.5
0.6
1.0

After posting official growth of +0.5% last year, Argentine activity is not expected to advance at a much faster pace in 2015. Forecasts for most sectors reflect the highly uncertain economic (and political) environment. Mining and services activity is projected to remain weak in both years. Manufacturing is expected to continue declining after last year’s drop, on the back of waning demand from neighbouring Brazil. A strong harvest will hopefully buoy agricultural production to 5.8% this year, helping with the government’s fiscal intake, but recent serious flooding in the farming regions, coupled with weaker agricultural prices, threatens that outlook. Presidential candidates have yet to express their views on whether heavy export tariffs on farmers’ crops will be lifted after October’s election.

A portion of text from Latin American Consensus Forecasts, August 17, 2015.