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SECTORAL GROWTH FORECASTS

In addition to their regular forecasts, once a year we survey our panellists in Latin American Consensus Forecasts (in August) and Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts (in July) for their projections for growth in a range of economic sectors, based on conventional GDP output breakdowns used in the individual countries.


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The table below shows a sample of the data for Argentina from one of our surveys of forecasts for Sectoral Growth (in this case, from our August 2016 Latin American Consensus Forecasts survey), together with textual analysis from the same publication.


ARGENTINA
% change on previous year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Agriculture and Forestry
-13.5
11.1
3.3
6.7
-0.5
5.6
Fishing
0.6
23.0
1.2
2.4
-4.9
1.8
Mining
-1.2
-4.0
1.5
2.8
-1.4
3.2
Manufacturing
-3.0
1.6
-5.1
0.2
-3.0
3.4
Electricity, Gas, Water
4.7
0.5
1.9
3.4
1.9
4.0
Construction
-2.4
-0.1
-2.1
2.9
-7.9
7.8
Services
0.7
1.7
-1.8
2.4
-1.1
3.0
Total GDP
-1.1
2.3
-2.6
2.4
-1.5
3.3

Argentina has been wrestling with sharp recession this year, on the back of the deeper retrenchment in neighbouring Brazil, weak agricultural commodity prices, a depreciation in the now free-floating peso, tighter fiscal austerity and soaring inflation. The removal of caps on utility prices has received the most protest in Argentina; however, conversely, this is the only sector expected to see growth this year (of +1.9%) now that energy companies are able to raise prices. Agriculture is forecast to decline by -0.5% but the lifting of export tariffs will likely support farming activity as it, too, allows farmers to maximise their profits. Next year is expected to see a 5.6% resurgence. A -7.9% contraction in construction is earmarked for 2016 as payback for last year’s election-fuelled building boom.

A portion of text from Latin American Consensus Forecasts, August 15, 2016.