forthcoming>>

CURRENCY RISK ASSESSMENTS

In addition to our regular monthly surveys for our panellists central projections for over 90 currencies we also ask our panellists for their estimates of the likelihood of alternative, perhaps less likely, outcomes in certain major currencies over the next twelve months in Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts (in July and December) for the currencies listed below.

To download a sample issue of Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts please click on the button below or continue reading to learn more about this special survey.

G7 Asia Pacific Eastern Europe Latin America Africa
Euro Australian Dollar Czech Koruna Argentinian Peso South African Rand
Japanese Yen Chinese renminbi Hungarian Forint Brazilian Real  
UK Pound Hong Kong dollar Israeli Shekel Chilean Peso  
Canadian Dollar Indian Rupee Polish Zloty Mexican Peso  
  Indonesian Rupiah Russian rouble Peruvian Sol  
  Malaysian Ringgit Turkish lira Venezuelan Bolivar  
  New Zealand dollar      
  Philippine Peso      
  Singapore dollar      
  South Korean Won      
  Taiwanese dollar      
  Thai baht      

Download Sample Issues

The table and text commentary below represent a portion of this special survey taken from our December 2015 issue of Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts

Consensus Probability (%) of Currency Depreciation or Appreciation
Survey Dated December 7, 2015 Currency Link Depreciation vs US$ +/-5% Appreciation vs US$
-20% or more -6% to -19% +6% to +19% +20% or more
 Japanese yen Floating 3.3 41.7 45.0 8.3 1.7
 UK Pound Floating 1.7 35.0 50.0 11.7 1.7
 South African rand Floating 5.0 20.0 47.5 22.5 5.0
 Argentinian Peso Managed Float 90.0 8.0 2.0 0.0 0.0
 Chinese renminbi Managed Float 2.5 15.0 65.0 15.0 2.5
 Polish zloty1 Floating 0.0 5.0 70.0 25.0 0.0

1 Probabilities are for appreciation/depreciation against the euro.

Consensus forecasts are averages of individual panellists’ predictions of how a currency is most likely to move over a given time horizon, but most forecasters would also attach some probability to various alternative outcomes or scenarios. This special survey of ‘Currency Risk Assessments’ is an attempt to quantify these uncertainties, using our panellists’ estimates to produce a number of consensus probability or risk distributions. This approach is especially useful in the case of pegged or heavily managed currencies, like the Argentinian peso and the Russian rouble. Alas, our annual survey on this topic has coincided with intense uncertainty regarding the macroeconomic outlook for Latin American countries, some of which are undergoing radical shifts in their political and policy landscapes. We do not, therefore, show consensus probability distributions in the table above for currencies in this region where we did not receive sufficient survey responses to form consensus probability distributions. While the likely direction of these currencies appears obvious given their sharp slide over the past twelve months, the room for further decline, or perhaps recovery, hinges upon an evolving mix of political, legal and external events in an environment of fast moving capital flows and expectations about tighter US$ liquidity.

A currency that received significant attention during 2015 has been the Chinese renminbi, which depreciated unexpectedly in mid-August. In addition, following a recovery, it was endorsed last week by the IMF to become part of its managed SDR basket. Most panellists expect this currency to trade within a +/-5.0% range against the US dollar over the next twelve months, but attach equal probabilities of 17.5% either side of it to moves of greater than this.

A portion of text taken from Foreign Exchange Consensus Forecasts, December 7, 2015.